New Marist Poll Shows Tight Race in Florida, Clinton Leads in Pennsylvania
The Marist Institute for Public Opinion, or Marist Poll, released data from their latest poll on Oct. 9, indicating a tight presidential race in the swing state of Florida and a clear lead for Clinton in Pennsylvania.
In terms of the sunshine state, it is important to note that this survey was done before Hurricane Matthew hit. However, the results out of Florida reflect the atmospheres of other battleground states. The candidates are just three points apart with Democrat Hillary Clinton at 45% and Republican Donald Trump at 42% among likely voters. Support for third party candidates is in the single digits, and 4% of those polled were undecided.
“Florida has voted for the winner in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections dating back to 1964,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “In terms of pathways to 270, it’s hard to see how Trump can win the White House without carrying this state.”
Both candidates have their base secured, with numbers in the 80’s in terms of support. Registered independents seem to favor Clinton, who is at 42% while Trump is at 33%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson holds his footing with independents, gathering 13% of this group.
Clinton also holds a lead with likely minorities in the state, garnering 83% of the African American vote and 61% of the Latino vote. Trump leads Clinton in the Caucasian voting group, leading by 19 points.
Among white voters without a college education, Trump leads with 61% as opposed to Clinton’s 28%. White voters with a college education also seem to favor Trump with a 47% to 42% contest.
In terms of gender, Clinton leads Trump among likely voters who are women 51% to 38%. Among likely male voters, Trump is 47% while Clinton is at 38%.
There are also some discrepancies in terms of age. For voters under age 45, Clinton is in the lead by 14 points. Among voters age 45 and older, Trump beats Clinton by 9 points.
Despite all of these elements, both candidates are still not well-liked in the state. Both have an unfavorable rating of 56% among likely voters.
The Marist Poll also conducted a survey on the U.S. Senate vote in Florida and found Republican incumbent Marco Rubio, 48% just 2 points ahead of his Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy, 46%.
Turning to the results out of Pennsylvania, Clinton holds her ground, leading Trump by 12 points in a 49% to 37% contest. Third party support is also in the single digits, and 3% of voters are undecided. Both major candidates hold a vast majority of their party base, with Clinton at 90% of Democrats and Trump at 83%.
Miringoff said, “For Hillary Clinton, it’s all about running up the score in Philadelphia and the Philadelphia suburbs. For Donald Trump, he still needs to find a way to break the Democrats’ winning streak in the last six presidential contests in the Keystone State.”
Among independent voters, Clinton and Trump are in a competitive race, 37% to 33%, respectively. Libertarian candidate Johnson has 16% of independents.
In terms of race, Clinton has a tremendous lead over Trump, 89% to 5% among African American voters. The race is much tighter among likely white voters with Clinton at 44% and Trump at 42%. Among white voters with a college degree, Clinton leads with 56%. White voters with a high school education favor Trump with 51% of that vote.
Clinton leads Trump by 20 points among women voters, 53%to 33%. Clinton also holds a slight lead with men, a 44% to 41% result.
Clinton also beats Trump with likely young voters under age 45, 48% to 32%. She also leads by 8 points among voters 45 and older.
In terms of net negativity ratings, Trump’s is six times greater than Clinton’s in Pennsylvania. Clinton has a net negative of 5 points while Trump has that of 32 points.
In terms of the U.S. Senate race in this state, Democrat Katie McGinty is ahead of Republican incumbent Pat Toomey by 4 points.
These results reflect the larger political conversation in the U.S. about this upcoming presidential election. Negativity ratings are high, and in swing states, the race isn’t as clear as it has been in past years. Check back within the coming weeks for more updates about the election from the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.↑ Back to top