Latest Marist Poll Data Shows Tight Race in Nevada, Clinton Leads in New Hampshire
New results from the Marist Poll released on Oct. 27 show Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leading Republican nominee Donald Trump in the swing state of New Hampshire, while the candidates are tied in Nevada.
In New Hampshire, Clinton is ahead 9 points with 45% of likely voters supporting her candidacy while only 36% support Trump. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson garnered 15% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 4%.
The two candidates are deadlocked at 43% each in Nevada. Johnson received 10% and Stein will not appear on the ballot.
Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Poll, said, “In Las Vegas terms, the contest for Nevada’s six electoral votes is a ‘push’ right now. Odds are that Clinton can bank on New Hampshire’s four electoral votes.”
In terms of the demographic elements of the national survey, political affiliation plays a major role in likely results of the 2016 election. Both candidates carry their party bases at 87% in Nevada. Among registered independent voters, 39% support Trump while 33% back Clinton. In New Hampshire, Clinton carries 91% of the Democratic base while Trump holds 76% of his fellow Republicans in the state. Independents in New Hampshire sway toward Clinton 39% to 32%.
In Nevada, Clinton wins among women likely to vote, but Trump leads among men and white voters with an without a college education. In New Hampshire, Clinton leads with women and white voters with a college education and Trump leads among men and white voters without a college education.
Both candidates have extremely high net negative ratings in both states. Clinton’s net negative in Nevada is 15 points, with 55% of voters citing an unfavorable impression of her and 40% having a favorable view of the candidate. Trump’s net negative in the state is 20 points, with 58% of voters viewing him as unfavorable while only 38% have a favorable view of him.
In New Hampshire, Clinton’s negativity rating is 13 points, with a favorable score of 42% and an unfavorable score of 55%. Trump’s net negativity score is three times as high as Clinton’s at 39 points. Only 29% of likely voters view him favorably while 68% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
These new results reflect the pattern of the election thus far, with Clinton gaining ground and Trump losing some of his strongholds. The race is still tight in these swing states, but with only two weeks until the election, Clinton’s favorability ratings are telling of the national conversation surrounding the next likely president of the United States.↑ Back to top